Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Great news for Lebanon's opposition - another MP is killed!

Here in Beirut - chaos. Another MP has been killed in East Beirut, where I live. This time Antoine Ghanem, a pro-government MP.

That is great news for the Aoun-Hezbollah opposition here.

Why? Because the opposition now only needs to kill another four pro-government MP's and, voila, the government will have lost its majority in parliament. Long live Middle Eastern democracy!

(Aoun is anti-Lebanese government and neutral towards Syria, Hezbollah is very anti-Lebanese government and very pro-Syrian, and Iranian, of course).

Just take a look at the list of Lebanese politicians killed since 14th februari 2005 (The day ex-PM Rafik Hariri was blown up). Although nobody has ever claimed responsibility for any of the killings it is pretty obvious who is behind all the killings...

Antoine Ghanem, MP (Maronite christian, pro government, anti-Hezbollah, anti Syrian)

Walid Eido, MP (Sunni muslim, pro government, anti Hezbollah, anti Syrian)

Pierre Gemayel, MP and Minister of Industry (Maronite christian, pro-government anti Hezbollah, anti Syria)

Gebran Tueni, MP (Maronite christian, pro-government, anti Hezbollah, anti Syria)

Rafiq Hariri, former PM (Sunni muslim, pro-government, anti Hezbollah, anti Syria)

Outside politics:

Baseel Fleihan, ex-Minister, wounded during Hariri attack, died later in hospital (I mistakenly took Mr. Fleihan for a Sunni muslim, he was though a protestant [see comments], pro-government, anti Hezbollah, anti Syria)

George Hawi, ex-leader Communist Party, (had problems with Syria)

Samir Kassir, writer/ journalist ( pro government, anti Hezbollah, anti Syria)

12 comments:

Jester said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jester said...

Aoun's chances have diminished dramatically as being nominated President of the Republic. I wonder who would probably do this in order to achieve such a result.

The question can be turned around many ways, no?

Anonymous said...

jester, are you going around all the blogs posting the exact same comment? What's this cut and paste time? I don't know who i feel more sorry for, you for doing it, or me for noticing it.

Harald Doornbos said...

@ anonymous,

thanks for funny remark.

tigermarks said...

Small correction: Basil Fleihan was not Sunni Muslim.

As for who has been behind the killings, it might be instructive to see who is actually gaining from them. I too have always suspected Syria's hand, but now I begin to wonder. What does Syria have to gain this time. Ok, so it got rid of another anti-Syrian political figure. What about those who are seeking to scuttle any compromise, they have clearly achieved their goal here. This could be a Lebanese faction, or even Israel or the US. Getting rid of anyone who has a chance of bridging the divide in Lebanon and bring Hezbollah back into the fold.

Harald Doornbos said...

@ tigermarks

Not a sunni, what then? Thanks for your interesting comments
cheers

tigermarks said...

Protestant if I am not mistaken. Thanks!

ella said...

Well, Syria does gain a large investment from iran, aroung 10 bln USD. Of course, it actually may not be connected to events in Lebanon, but one has to wonder, hasn't one. Furthermore with instability in Lebanon Syria can once again gain control over Lebanon, if not directly than by proxy.
With so many anti-Syrian and anti-Hezbullah MPs assassinated Hezbullah is begining to come closer to having majority in Lebanese parliament and it might think that March 14th MPs will be too scared to voice any opposition to what Hezbullah is/will be doing in South Lebanon.
I also believe that whoever perpetrated this last assassination may think that Western countries will protest, will talk a lot, but at the end will do nothing, nothing at all. As they did not do much after the murder of Rafik Hairi.

tigermarks

You did not mention Iran who can also gain something from instability in Lebanon.

Harald Doornbos said...

@ella,
All rational thinking leads to 95 chance Syria is behind it, 5 percent Israel.

Still, the frustrating part is that we don't have any evidence for any theorie. Now again, no arrests, no suspects, police investigation done (again) in a very clumsy way.

I still think syria (with hezbollah or palestian supporters) are behind it.

Why? well, Israel, for sure, would have wacked prominent politicians on both sides. So, lets say, first an MP of 14th of March, then somebody from March 8th etc. This to make it look like a tit for tat vendetta between the two Lebanese sides, thus to weaken both.

The fact that ONLY 14th of March people get killed, seriously weakens the government. Not only in parliament, but it creates a huge amount of fear among the pro-government Lebanese. The current administration looks like a bunch of idiots. They are not able to provide security or arrest any of the killers. It seems that people constantly get reminded (true or not) that Damascus can screw up things very easily here. This feeling of instability makes the 14th of March extremely hesitant to openly plead for disarming Hezbollah etc.

After all these killings, the idea you get here in lebanon is: "Syria might be gone, but its shadow still hangs over Lebanon."

This is NOT at all in the interest of Israel, but, clearly, in Syria's.

Last point: Aftermath of Hariri killing lead to the arrest of four, pro-syrian, Lebanese generals. Israel was never ever (in a serious way) mentioned by any investigator. If the killing of Hariri and all the other murders are NOT related, I will eat the bumper of my car.

Bye and keep on commenting!

Harald Doornbos said...

@ tiger

true, I hear he ran for a protestant seat, but does this automatically make him a protestant? I don't know. Checked it this morning with somebody and he kept on claiming he was a sunni muslim. I'll check it out, but guess you are right. It kind of makes sense that you have to be a protestant to get elected into parliament on the countries only protestant seat.
cheers,

Anonymous said...

harald,
he's not automatically sunni muslim because he associated with harriri!
He is christian and is buried in a christian cemetery near el-mat-haf area.

Harald Doornbos said...

@anonymous

Thanks for info, i've changed it already in my text.