ON EVE OF CERTAIN CONFRONTATION, PAKISTAN SET FOR IRAN 1979-SCENARIO?

Prepare yourself for big riots in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, on Friday. Supporters of Benazir Bhutto will defy a ban on public gatherings there. And since the protests will start right after Friday prayer, there is a very big chance religious right wingers will join in.

Just to be clear; Bhutto's PPP-party is a, more or less, left leaning, secular party. The Islamists are extreme right wingers, trying to establish Sharia law in Pakistan. Both sides, again more or less, work together these days because of their common hatred towards president Pervez Musharraf. It all smells a little like Iran in 1979 on the eve of the fall of the American backed Shah and the start of the Shi'ite Islamic revolution.

What many, especially secular demonstrators, do not seem to realize is this: What if Musharraf is ousted? What then?!

Compare it to three people fighting for one chair.

At the moment, Musharraf sits on it. But two other persons - who formed an alliance -really would like to kick his butt and take over his seat. Let's assume Musharraf's butt is indeed kicked. What will follow is a fight between the two others, because - hey - there is only one chair and one seat available.

We've seen this before in Iran 1979. Secular left and Islamic extreme right together against the shah. And after his fall, the secular leftists were wiped out by the islamists. 28 years later, they still run the show in Iran.

In Pakistan too, there is only one chair. And although secular Islam can count on my support, they have no chance of winning the battle with the islamists, who have shown - over and over again - to be extremely ruthless in dealing with an enemy they consider anti-Islamic.

Anyhow, on the eve of this almost certain violent confrontation between Musharraf's police and anti-Musharraf protesters, just enough time to post two innocent pictures from Pakistan.

The first one I took today, in Rawalpindi (with mobile phone) and shows how the Pakistani police deals with parking violators. Hilarious but effective! Will they use this tomorrow as well to remove demonstrators? Who knows...


I took this second pic some days ago, while aboard a PIA plane travelling from Karachi to Islamabad. It´s around 05.20 in the morning, we just took off. It is praying time. Old man walks up to the stewardess, asks if he can role out his prayer rug. No problem, she says. He starts praying next to the front door. I took the pic from my seat. Just to be clear: We were 10 kms up in the air of course. Pretty cute actually. Only in Pakistan!


Harald Doornbos

IN PAKISTAN, THERE IS TENSION (AND A LITTLE BIT OF TEARGAS) IN THE AIR

Situation here in Paki 'martial law' stan is still rather normal. Daily life continues uninterruptedly.

But after Benazir Bhutto's announcement of street protests for tomorrow (Friday) against Musharraf and possibly a Long March on the 13Th (next Tuesday) you can feel the tension is rising in this country.

On Wednesday I attended Benazir Bhutto's press conference, in a garden in front of a villa, in Islamabad. Here she strongly denied any rumours of a meeting between her and president Musharraf. She also announced the street protests.

This was the first time ever I saw Benazir Bhutto live (see picture, above on the right, I made of her). It is always interesting to to be around a living legend and - after the Karachi bomb attacks which killed 139 - live to tell the story. As she announced her Long March against Musharraf, I got this feeling: Hey, this might be history in the making. Because clearly, if she and her followers go for massive protests, today's Pakistan might be very much different from tomorrows'.

Bhutto is clearly adored by her followers. BB in the West might stand for Brigitte Bardot, in Pakistan BB means Benazir Bhutto. During her speech, fans and party members kept on interrupting her by shouting slogans like Long live Benazir . This even led to some annoyance among Bhutto's personal assistants.

"Shut up, it's enough now," one of them yelled at a supporter as he, again, wanted to raise the slogan "Long Live Benazir."

After the press conference, around 250 BB-supporters walked to the presidential palace, around 500 meters down the road. Riot police stood by and watched. Everything was more or less calm, until some Bhutto-supporters started to attack the cops. The policemen got their bamboo-sticks ready, hit a few people and made some arrests during minor scuffles.

At one point demonstrators pushed an iron barricade into the police lines. The cops pushed it back. Followed by the demonstrators who pushed the thing back towards the police. This was getting a little bit silly, as it looked very much like a rope pulling contest. I even could see some policemen smiling while pushing the barrier back towards the protesters (and getting the thing back five seconds later of course).

The cops then fired some five rounds of teargas over the crowd. As I stood right between the police and the protesters, the teargas did not effect me much. But it created white clouds as the sun set in Islamabad.

Until now, this country has not seen any serious protests. This of course can change tomorrow (Friday), as the first Bhutto demonstration will start in Rawalpindi, around 15 km's from Islamabad and the place where Musharraf lives. Since it will start after Friday prayer, there is a rather big chance religious right wingers might join hands with BB.

On Friday, everything will depend on the turnout. A couple of thousand and some minor riots - no worries for Musharraf. But in case tens of thousands of demonstrators show up and massive disturbances take place, Musharraf might have to seriously start to worry about his own position.

Let's wait till Friday.

Harald Doornbos

IN ISLAMABAD, MORE NORMALITY THAN EMERGENCY

It is already pretty late here in Islamabad, so have to keep it short.

But the situation in Islamabad and Rawalpindi (the places where I've been today) is actually rather different than most media reports suggest. Emergency rule in Musharraf's Pakistan isn't some kind of Pinochet- or Burma-style crackdown on the opposition.

Well, what is it?

Let me tell you what I saw today.

- At Karachi airport - everything entirely normal. Nobody even spoke about emergency rule. No sign of tension whatsoever.

- Islamabad airport - same situation as always. No extra checks, no soldiers. Outside no tanks, apc's or extra security forces. Just business as usual. A lot of people outside picking up loved ones from an airport.

- Islamabad -Airport to Islamabad (20 km):
No difference with any other day. I've lived here, so I really know. A lot of people on the roads and streets - they all went to work. Halfway Pindi-Islamabad a police checkpoint, well, not a checkpoint actually, just four cops standing next to the highway (this is a permanent police post, already there for many years). Saw some other policemen trying to hitch-hike between Pindi and Islamabad.

- Islamabad.
All shops and schools open. Phones and Internet work. Mobile phone network was NOT cut off. Actually, I got today a new pak mobile connection, took 15 minutes.

Haven't seen any demonstration. Did not notice any lawyers, just nothing. No army, no extra police, no checkpoints.

All newspapers are published regularly. And the comments are extremely critical of Musharraf. "Pakistan's blackest days" and "A power hungry Musharraf" are words frequently used in papers like Dawn, The News, The Nation. More or less a free press during a state of emergency - strange, but very Pakistani. Because although military rule is nothing new to Pakistan, the country has a tradition of very open and critical debates. I reached Pakistan via Dubai. Hell, I'd rather have a Pakistani paper during martial law than these crappy Dubai-long-live-the-ruler-newspapers.
Honestly, had a tourist visited Islamabad and Pindi on Tuesday, he or she would not have noticed anything out of the ordinary.

So is everything totally normal?

NO, definitely not.

Around the presidential palace in Islamabad, police has blocked two main roads. Riot police is on stand by. But, honestly nothing dramatic. Just 50 cops with helmets sitting nest to a road. I guess, the White House is better protected on regular days.

Around ten TV channels are still blocked from broadcasting. Actually, TV stations like GEO or Dawn News can still broadcast, but their signal is not being transmitted by the cable companies (on government orders of course). But later on Tuesday I heard from several people who live in the country side (outside Islamabad) that they had access to all channels again. In the cities though many news channels remain blocked. As I flip through my channels in my room, I get around ten black channels. Cartoon Network and PTV (Pakistan's state TV) still are on air. PTV showed some silly show on different kind of food from the country. Really interesting of course in times of martial law...

Spoke to many ordinary people today. Except for one, nobody supported Musharraf's action. But none of these people told me they were willing to demonstrate. Some were scared to be arrested, but most of them just did not seem to care too much. "Whatever we say or want," a man told me, "In a country like Pakistan the leaders never ever listen to us. So it is the same song all over again."

I was though surprised that 99 percent of people were so negative about Musharraf. It will be very difficult for Pakistan's president to win back the hearts of minds of ordinary Pakistanis. Most of them are convinced Musharraf is just a power hungry ruler. And a lot of people told me that the emergency situation had nothing to do with fighting radical islamists, but everything with controlling the lawyers and judges.

Last, but not least: The mass arrests. True, hundreds (maybe up to 3000) people have been detained. Many though are under house arrest (which is of course not so bad). Others were put into government guesthouses. Compared to home sweet home, not a nice play to stay of course. But, at the other hand, it is also not the end of the world.

And let's not forget. Except for lawyers, judges and a couple of left wing human rights activists, a lot of arrests were made among extreme right wing islamists. Retired general and former head of Pakistan's ISI, Hameed Gul, was arrested. He is a notorious right winger, supporting Taliban and Al Qaeda. Also, the leader of Jamaat e Islami, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, was arrested. He is a notorious hardcore right winger/islamist.

Just this: Since Musharraf has declared martial law, nobody has been killed. Around 5 to 10 people received minor injuries during scuffles between police and demonstrators (mainly lawyers).

Tomorrow more.

Harald Doornbos

HARRYZZZ FROM ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN

I arrived today, Tuesday morning, in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. This of course because of the current controverse surrounding president Musharraf's decision to declare martial law.

Later today the first story; live from Pakistan.

But don't get too exited...

Honestly, there is hardly anything going on here. Stories of "a brutal crackdown" seem highly exaggerated. Situation very, very normal. No this isn't the same as Burma a couple of weeks ago - far from it.

As said before, a more detailed story will follow within a couple of hours.

Harald Doornbos

EMERGENCY RULE IN PAKISTAN!

A major, major development in Pakistan. Although many people thought he did not dare to do it, on saturday November 3rd 2007, president Pervez Musharraf has declared emergency rule.

Hopefully soon more on harryzzz on this amazing development.

Harald Doornbos

IN LEBANESE CANNABIS VILLAGE, PROUD TO BE DUTCH

It is great to be Dutch. Especially after arrival in Boudai, a cannabis- or marijuana growing village in Lebanon's Beka'a valley. "Hey," the villagers tell me, "We're expecting the Dutch dealer only in December."

As I wasn't the dealer but just a Dutch journalist, they explain me how things work here.

"We'll be harvesting anytime soon," Abu Ali, the owner of a cannabis field, says. As we walk towards it, you can smell the marijuana.

"This must be a relaxed village," I ask.

"Oh, yeah, it is," replies Abu Ali. In the meantime, another chap, named Bessam, walks along. "Top quality goes for 1000 usd a kilo," Bessam claims.

Boudai's return to cannabis production started - as with almost everything in nowadays Lebanon - with the killing of Lebanese ex-PM Rafik Hariri. Or, in other words, with the collapse of the Lebanese state.

Until his killing, in 2005, Boudai had been clean. It did not grow cannabis for over ten years. Almost fifteen years of relative peace in Lebanon had strengthened the state. Even here, in the notoriously lawless Beka'a valley, police and army men patrolled the streets. Cannabis, massively produced here during the civil war, became a forbidden fruit, or better, plant. Without cannabis, the villagers of Boudai grew potatoes.

So Hariri got killed. And anti-Syrian members of parliament, politicians and intellectuals started, involuntarily, to drop dead on Beirut's streets. Then, a Summer war between the radical Shi'ite militia Hezbollah and Israel. Followed by an overly confident Hezbollah trying to overthrow the Lebanese government by boycotting parliament and starting violent street protests. The result of this was clear: Hatred between Sunni's (mostly pro-government) and Shiites (anti-government). To make matters worse: Lebanon has to choose, by the end of November, a new president to replace the current pro-Syrian and pro-Hezbollah one. Government and opposition can't agree on a candidate. Hezbollah and its christian allies of Michel Aoun have threatened to set up a parallel government with a president of their own.

This remarkable downward spiral has made the central government even more of a lame duck.

"Because of the the Summer War and the political chaos in 2006," continues Abu Ali, "We though: Hey, screw these potatoes and let's plant some cannabis. More or less as a test. Let's see if the police will come and try to destroy the crops."

But the cops did not show up. Instead, a Dutch drug dealer arrived. Cannabis was back in the Beka'a valley. "We said to each other: Damn, why did we not plant more!."

So this year, almost everybody in the village exchanged potatoes for cannabis. And not only here in Boudai (which is a muslim shi'ite village), but in at least ten other neighbouring villages (both shi'ite and christian).

A couple of weeks ago, policemen tried to enter Boudai and burn down the crops. But the men from the village got their rifles and Kalashnikov ready and opened fire on the police. "Well, not at them, but above their heads," says Abu Ali. "They all went down and fled," he smilingly claims.

So now everybody here is waiting for the Dutch drug dealer. Because the Dutch guy means money and there is a chronic lack of money in this part of Lebanon.

"Most people are very poor," says Bessam, "Potatoes alone just do not do it."

"Hezbollah is, due to religious reasons, against cultivating cannabis," claims Abu Ali. "So we told them: Ok, we'll stop growing this stuff if you supply us with jobs and a monthly salary of 500 usd. They told us they did not have the money to do that."

Last question: Will 2008 be another cannabis year for Boudai?

"For sure," says Abu Ali, "We are probably one of the few people in Lebanon who hope for continuing political turmoil. To us it would be good when they can't elect a new president."

Harald Doornbos

POLL: MUSHARRAF AND BHUTTO SHOULD WORK TOGETHER

Ok, for what it is worth: A majority of Harryzzz readers wants Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf and ex-PM Benazir Bhutto to join ranks and fight Islamic militants together.

This is the - surprisingly - reasonable result of a recent Harryzzz poll (see right side on your screen). The Musharraf-Bhutto tango was supported by 55 percent of voters.

But 33 percent wants Musharraf to "screw it" and declare a full scale war against the jehadi's. It seems Musharraf is listening, check out here.

Only three percent (actually, just one voter) thinks it is high time for Musharraf to pack his bags and resign. (Harryzzz will try to find out if this voter is a certain Saudi chap hanging out in Pakistan's tribal areas)

Seven percent of voters (two persons) answered: What or where is Pakistan? It seems pretty obvious where these two votes came from.... Check here. (But why vote twice Mr. President - this ain't Florida!)

Harald Doornbos

INTERESTING REPORT ON SUSPICIOUS SYRIAN FACILITY

Readers interested in Syria, should check the following AP report, based on an investigation done by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS). It shines some light on the possible target which Israeli planes recently bombed in Syria.

CAIRO, Egypt - Commercial satellite images show construction in Syria that resembles the early stages of a small North Korean-model nuclear reactor, a report said Wednesday, speculating that it was the site hit last month by an Israeli air strike.

The photos, taken nearly a month before the Sept. 6 strike, show a tall box-like building near the Euphrates River that the report said was similar in shape to a North Korean five-megawatt reactor building in Yongbyon.

It cautioned that the Syrian building was "not far enough along in its construction to make a definitive comparison." The photo also shows a smaller building that the report says appears to be a pump station, which would be needed to provide water to cool a reactor.

The report was written by David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector and now head of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, and researcher Paul Brannan.

In Damascus, a Syrian Foreign Ministry official denied the satellite photos in the report showed a nuclear reactor. (read whole article here)

It really is a must to keep track of the ISIS website. Very well informed and knowledgeable people. ISIS here.

Download their PDF report (with pictures) of a possible Syrian nuclear installation here.

After you've seen those pictures, my advice to every freelance journalist who feels bored: Move your ass and get to that location! If you manage to make pics of that installation after the Israeli raid, your reward will be eternal fame. There's one but. If the Syrians get you before you "click" your camera, you might end up "eternal" in a more philosophical way. Simply put, you might get killed.

Update:

To all bored freelance journalists: Don't travel to Syria (see above)! As it turns out, the ISIS already has pictures of the post-bombed side which were put online today. Below the satellite pictures before and after the Israeli strike (pics from ISIS-document):


Download the latest PDF file with more info on the pre- and post-bombing side via ISIS here. Interesting stuff!

Harald Doornbos