ON EVE OF CERTAIN CONFRONTATION, PAKISTAN SET FOR IRAN 1979-SCENARIO?

Prepare yourself for big riots in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, on Friday. Supporters of Benazir Bhutto will defy a ban on public gatherings there. And since the protests will start right after Friday prayer, there is a very big chance religious right wingers will join in.

Just to be clear; Bhutto's PPP-party is a, more or less, left leaning, secular party. The Islamists are extreme right wingers, trying to establish Sharia law in Pakistan. Both sides, again more or less, work together these days because of their common hatred towards president Pervez Musharraf. It all smells a little like Iran in 1979 on the eve of the fall of the American backed Shah and the start of the Shi'ite Islamic revolution.

What many, especially secular demonstrators, do not seem to realize is this: What if Musharraf is ousted? What then?!

Compare it to three people fighting for one chair.

At the moment, Musharraf sits on it. But two other persons - who formed an alliance -really would like to kick his butt and take over his seat. Let's assume Musharraf's butt is indeed kicked. What will follow is a fight between the two others, because - hey - there is only one chair and one seat available.

We've seen this before in Iran 1979. Secular left and Islamic extreme right together against the shah. And after his fall, the secular leftists were wiped out by the islamists. 28 years later, they still run the show in Iran.

In Pakistan too, there is only one chair. And although secular Islam can count on my support, they have no chance of winning the battle with the islamists, who have shown - over and over again - to be extremely ruthless in dealing with an enemy they consider anti-Islamic.

Anyhow, on the eve of this almost certain violent confrontation between Musharraf's police and anti-Musharraf protesters, just enough time to post two innocent pictures from Pakistan.

The first one I took today, in Rawalpindi (with mobile phone) and shows how the Pakistani police deals with parking violators. Hilarious but effective! Will they use this tomorrow as well to remove demonstrators? Who knows...


I took this second pic some days ago, while aboard a PIA plane travelling from Karachi to Islamabad. It´s around 05.20 in the morning, we just took off. It is praying time. Old man walks up to the stewardess, asks if he can role out his prayer rug. No problem, she says. He starts praying next to the front door. I took the pic from my seat. Just to be clear: We were 10 kms up in the air of course. Pretty cute actually. Only in Pakistan!


Harald Doornbos

IN PAKISTAN, THERE IS TENSION (AND A LITTLE BIT OF TEARGAS) IN THE AIR

Situation here in Paki 'martial law' stan is still rather normal. Daily life continues uninterruptedly.

But after Benazir Bhutto's announcement of street protests for tomorrow (Friday) against Musharraf and possibly a Long March on the 13Th (next Tuesday) you can feel the tension is rising in this country.

On Wednesday I attended Benazir Bhutto's press conference, in a garden in front of a villa, in Islamabad. Here she strongly denied any rumours of a meeting between her and president Musharraf. She also announced the street protests.

This was the first time ever I saw Benazir Bhutto live (see picture, above on the right, I made of her). It is always interesting to to be around a living legend and - after the Karachi bomb attacks which killed 139 - live to tell the story. As she announced her Long March against Musharraf, I got this feeling: Hey, this might be history in the making. Because clearly, if she and her followers go for massive protests, today's Pakistan might be very much different from tomorrows'.

Bhutto is clearly adored by her followers. BB in the West might stand for Brigitte Bardot, in Pakistan BB means Benazir Bhutto. During her speech, fans and party members kept on interrupting her by shouting slogans like Long live Benazir . This even led to some annoyance among Bhutto's personal assistants.

"Shut up, it's enough now," one of them yelled at a supporter as he, again, wanted to raise the slogan "Long Live Benazir."

After the press conference, around 250 BB-supporters walked to the presidential palace, around 500 meters down the road. Riot police stood by and watched. Everything was more or less calm, until some Bhutto-supporters started to attack the cops. The policemen got their bamboo-sticks ready, hit a few people and made some arrests during minor scuffles.

At one point demonstrators pushed an iron barricade into the police lines. The cops pushed it back. Followed by the demonstrators who pushed the thing back towards the police. This was getting a little bit silly, as it looked very much like a rope pulling contest. I even could see some policemen smiling while pushing the barrier back towards the protesters (and getting the thing back five seconds later of course).

The cops then fired some five rounds of teargas over the crowd. As I stood right between the police and the protesters, the teargas did not effect me much. But it created white clouds as the sun set in Islamabad.

Until now, this country has not seen any serious protests. This of course can change tomorrow (Friday), as the first Bhutto demonstration will start in Rawalpindi, around 15 km's from Islamabad and the place where Musharraf lives. Since it will start after Friday prayer, there is a rather big chance religious right wingers might join hands with BB.

On Friday, everything will depend on the turnout. A couple of thousand and some minor riots - no worries for Musharraf. But in case tens of thousands of demonstrators show up and massive disturbances take place, Musharraf might have to seriously start to worry about his own position.

Let's wait till Friday.

Harald Doornbos

IN ISLAMABAD, MORE NORMALITY THAN EMERGENCY

It is already pretty late here in Islamabad, so have to keep it short.

But the situation in Islamabad and Rawalpindi (the places where I've been today) is actually rather different than most media reports suggest. Emergency rule in Musharraf's Pakistan isn't some kind of Pinochet- or Burma-style crackdown on the opposition.

Well, what is it?

Let me tell you what I saw today.

- At Karachi airport - everything entirely normal. Nobody even spoke about emergency rule. No sign of tension whatsoever.

- Islamabad airport - same situation as always. No extra checks, no soldiers. Outside no tanks, apc's or extra security forces. Just business as usual. A lot of people outside picking up loved ones from an airport.

- Islamabad -Airport to Islamabad (20 km):
No difference with any other day. I've lived here, so I really know. A lot of people on the roads and streets - they all went to work. Halfway Pindi-Islamabad a police checkpoint, well, not a checkpoint actually, just four cops standing next to the highway (this is a permanent police post, already there for many years). Saw some other policemen trying to hitch-hike between Pindi and Islamabad.

- Islamabad.
All shops and schools open. Phones and Internet work. Mobile phone network was NOT cut off. Actually, I got today a new pak mobile connection, took 15 minutes.

Haven't seen any demonstration. Did not notice any lawyers, just nothing. No army, no extra police, no checkpoints.

All newspapers are published regularly. And the comments are extremely critical of Musharraf. "Pakistan's blackest days" and "A power hungry Musharraf" are words frequently used in papers like Dawn, The News, The Nation. More or less a free press during a state of emergency - strange, but very Pakistani. Because although military rule is nothing new to Pakistan, the country has a tradition of very open and critical debates. I reached Pakistan via Dubai. Hell, I'd rather have a Pakistani paper during martial law than these crappy Dubai-long-live-the-ruler-newspapers.
Honestly, had a tourist visited Islamabad and Pindi on Tuesday, he or she would not have noticed anything out of the ordinary.

So is everything totally normal?

NO, definitely not.

Around the presidential palace in Islamabad, police has blocked two main roads. Riot police is on stand by. But, honestly nothing dramatic. Just 50 cops with helmets sitting nest to a road. I guess, the White House is better protected on regular days.

Around ten TV channels are still blocked from broadcasting. Actually, TV stations like GEO or Dawn News can still broadcast, but their signal is not being transmitted by the cable companies (on government orders of course). But later on Tuesday I heard from several people who live in the country side (outside Islamabad) that they had access to all channels again. In the cities though many news channels remain blocked. As I flip through my channels in my room, I get around ten black channels. Cartoon Network and PTV (Pakistan's state TV) still are on air. PTV showed some silly show on different kind of food from the country. Really interesting of course in times of martial law...

Spoke to many ordinary people today. Except for one, nobody supported Musharraf's action. But none of these people told me they were willing to demonstrate. Some were scared to be arrested, but most of them just did not seem to care too much. "Whatever we say or want," a man told me, "In a country like Pakistan the leaders never ever listen to us. So it is the same song all over again."

I was though surprised that 99 percent of people were so negative about Musharraf. It will be very difficult for Pakistan's president to win back the hearts of minds of ordinary Pakistanis. Most of them are convinced Musharraf is just a power hungry ruler. And a lot of people told me that the emergency situation had nothing to do with fighting radical islamists, but everything with controlling the lawyers and judges.

Last, but not least: The mass arrests. True, hundreds (maybe up to 3000) people have been detained. Many though are under house arrest (which is of course not so bad). Others were put into government guesthouses. Compared to home sweet home, not a nice play to stay of course. But, at the other hand, it is also not the end of the world.

And let's not forget. Except for lawyers, judges and a couple of left wing human rights activists, a lot of arrests were made among extreme right wing islamists. Retired general and former head of Pakistan's ISI, Hameed Gul, was arrested. He is a notorious right winger, supporting Taliban and Al Qaeda. Also, the leader of Jamaat e Islami, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, was arrested. He is a notorious hardcore right winger/islamist.

Just this: Since Musharraf has declared martial law, nobody has been killed. Around 5 to 10 people received minor injuries during scuffles between police and demonstrators (mainly lawyers).

Tomorrow more.

Harald Doornbos

POLL: MUSHARRAF AND BHUTTO SHOULD WORK TOGETHER

Ok, for what it is worth: A majority of Harryzzz readers wants Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf and ex-PM Benazir Bhutto to join ranks and fight Islamic militants together.

This is the - surprisingly - reasonable result of a recent Harryzzz poll (see right side on your screen). The Musharraf-Bhutto tango was supported by 55 percent of voters.

But 33 percent wants Musharraf to "screw it" and declare a full scale war against the jehadi's. It seems Musharraf is listening, check out here.

Only three percent (actually, just one voter) thinks it is high time for Musharraf to pack his bags and resign. (Harryzzz will try to find out if this voter is a certain Saudi chap hanging out in Pakistan's tribal areas)

Seven percent of voters (two persons) answered: What or where is Pakistan? It seems pretty obvious where these two votes came from.... Check here. (But why vote twice Mr. President - this ain't Florida!)

Harald Doornbos

Pakistan: Politics and planes

He flew, he landed...and he got deported.

For sure the shortest, but not the best comeback for Pakistan's ex-PM Nawaz Sharif (Well, compared to Benigno Aquino, an opposition leader from the Philippines, Mr. Sharif got away pretty easily. Remember? Mr. Aquino was shot and killed right outside his plane, after he returned in 1983 from exile).

But why is president Musharraf so tough on Mr. Sharif? I mean, Mr Sharif is about Pakistan's dullest politician. Still, there are enough reasons.

First, Mr. Sharif had promised, in 2000, to stay in exile in Saudi Arabia for ten years. Second, he was told by a Pakistani judge to give up politics. Third, the political party supporting Musharraf, the PML-Q, derives from Mr Sharif's party, the PML (Pakistan Muslim League). And fourth, not unimportant, Mr Sharif tried to get Musharraf (and 200 others) killed in 1999.

This last point is the most important reason behind Mr. Musharrafs utter dislike for Nawaz Sharif.

Let's go back to 1999. In that year PM Sharif fired Mr. Musharraf, who was at that time the army chief of Pakistan. Musharraf was on a visit to Sri Lanka when he heard he got fired. Immediately after, an angry Musharraf boarded a commercial airliner and tried to get back to Pakistan. Just before the pilot of the plane carrying Musharraf (and 200 others - mainly tourists, workers and Pakistanis living in Sri Lanka) tried to land at Karachi airport, he was told by traffic control that the plane did not have permission to land. Earlier, traffic control received an order from PM Sharif not to allow Musharraf to set foot on Pakistani soil.

As it goes with planes, you only have fuel for a certain distance. So the pilot tried to go for another airstrip in the area. But again: No permission to land. By now rather desperate, the pilot tried to land at Karachi airport. But again, the control tower did not give permission. Only after troops loyal to Pervez Musharraf stormed the airport, the plane could touch down. The fuel level was so low, that the plane could have stayed only another seven minutes in the air. Sharif was immediately arrested and Musharraf staged his, bloodless, coup.

Read the details of this fascinating story here.

Pakistan Army song:


And because if was such an amazing event - The killing of Beningo Aquino:


Harald Doornbos